Kamala Harris Behind in Arizona As Poll Shows Her Latino Voter Problem

A new poll from Arizona reveals a troubling sign for Vice President Kamala Harris as she struggles to gain traction with Latino voters, a key demographic that has traditionally leaned Democratic.
A Marist poll conducted between September 19 and 24 shows Donald Trump with a narrow 1-point lead over Harris among likely voters in Arizona, holding 50 percent to her 49 percent. The gap widens slightly among registered voters, with Trump leading Harris by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent.
In 2020, around 33 percent of Latino voters voted for Trump in Arizona, up from 30 percent in 2016, according to the Americas Society/Council of the Americas.
Nationally, 38 percent of Latinos supported Trump in 2020, up from 28 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center think tank, while 59 percent supported President Joe Biden.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
The Republican candidate is hoping to see a further boost in Hispanic support this year, in the swing states and nationally.
While other polls in Arizona have not shown Trump holding a lead among Hispanics, they have indicated that his support among the demographic is growing.
A poll conducted by Focaldata between September 3 and 16 showed that 38 percent of Hispanic voters support Trump, while 57 percent support Harris.
The most recent New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted between September 17 and 21 showed that Trump had support from 41 percent of Hispanic voters in Arizona, compared to the vice president’s 49 percent.
The Arizona results came as polls show Trump has an edge over Harris in many of the Sun Belt states.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, the Republican is currently 0.6 points ahead in North Carolina, 1.3 points ahead in Georgia, and 1.1 points ahead in Arizona, and is projected to win in all three states. The two candidates are also tied in Nevada, according to the polling aggregator, where the Democrats are projected to win.
Pollster Nate Silver’s forecast also shows that Trump is ahead by between 0.6 and 1.3 points in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while it has Harris leading in Nevada by 1.1 points.
However, not all polls show bad news for Harris in the Sun Belt. Focaldata’s poll showed that she was leading in Arizona by 2.2 points, in Georgia by 0.7 points and in Nevada by 1.7 points. The poll surveyed 8,678 likely voters across 8 states.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is projected to win in four of the swing states, gaining her 53 electoral votes, while Trump is predicted to win in three, gaining him 43 electoral votes.
Nationally, the picture looks similar to Arizona, with Trump’s lead among Hispanic voters increasing, while Harris’ is decreasing.
The most recent ActiVote poll, from September 24, showed Trump could see a substantial increase in Hispanic support, with 49 percent of Latino voters polled saying they would vote for the Republican, compared to 51 percent for the vice president. That is down from a 60/40 gap between Harris and Trump among Hispanic voters in ActiVote’s poll from the beginning of September.